Zimbabwean farmers are bracing for challenging times ahead as a strong El Niño event is forecasted to cause
below-average rainfall across much of Southern Africa. This weather phenomenon, expected to reach peak intensity in late 2023 and dissipate by mid-2024, will likely result in below-average 2024 harvests.
The negative impacts of the El Niño during the 2023/24 rainy season, including low labour opportunities and high food prices, may be expected.
The deficit-producing areas of Zimbabwe are of highest concern. Governments, donors, humanitarian partners, and other stakeholders are urged to prepare for high food assistance needs through early 2025.
The various weather shocks during the 2022/23 agricultural season resulted in mixed harvests across the region. However, hot and dry conditions in the western parts of the region, and the impact of Cyclone Freddy in the eastern parts of the region, resulted in poor harvests in parts of southern Zimbabwe.
The above-average harvests in South Africa and Tanzania are supporting above-average regional maize supplies during the 2023/24 marketing year (MY), estimated at 6 percent above last year and 9 percent above the five-year average. Despite this, maize prices remain higher than last year and the five-year average across many markets in the region.
An erratic start to the 2023/24 rainy season is expected to result in below-normal labour opportunities for land preparation and planting, with a similar trend likely to occur in early to mid-2024 during the anticipated below-average 2024 harvest.
This report is based on the November 2023 alert from the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET).
Source: FEWS NET